FREE Throws in the NBA and how they factor into NBA Titles

Have you ever found yourself yelling at the TV or a player at the game with something along the lines of this clean version "MAKE YOUR FREE THROWS, THEY ARE CALLED FREE FOR A REASON." I'm sure there are hundreds of word combinations that could be used along the lines of $%^&# &(%*$#  however I will leave you to remember what you have said in the past and let you think about what you will say during the NBA Playoffs because you know plenty of Free Throws are coming your viewership way.

Anyone who is reasonably educated with basketball knows the fundamental rule surrounding a "Free Throw" (FT) and that first and foremost it is = Free, meaning an unhindered or unopposed shot. This is the only play in basketball where a player has the ability to take up to 10 seconds, gather himself, go through his routine or motion and shoot from the same area on the floor that measures 15 ft, 4.57m from the foul line to the hoop each and every single time. When a player is fouled and put in a situation to shoot a Free Throw, the player knows that the physical aspect of the Free Throw has never changed despite variables ranging from fatigue, pressure, and incomprehensible noise etc. which could all be factors associated with the outcomes.

The question is then raised, if you are aspiring to be good at something let alone a professional athlete, in this case playing for the NBA and know you have the ability to master a shot that is Free and remains constant, why would you not do everything within your power to master this skill? The argument can be made that we are seeing better athletes and players than ever before, so in theory this should be an easy solution. The NBA Playoffs has seen record breaking FT attempts this postseason mainly due to the likes of Dwight Howard, Josh Smith and DeAndre Jordan (no relation to MJ).

Their consistent inability to shoot at a respectable percentage is mind boggling, as I described in my intro. The phrase coined "Hack a Shaq" has taken an all new meaning in the 2015 NBA Playoffs making executives, owners, fans, and players question whether rule changes need to be put in place that eliminates that ability to foul any given player and send them to the FT line during a game. This can influence the games tempo, coaching strategies, defensive sets, substitutions, player personnel on the floor given the "Hack a Shaq" mentality oppositions are using.

Check out DJ's 34 attempts set to the sweet sounds of 'Roundball Rock

http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2015/5/10/8583921/hack-a-deandre-jordan-set-to-the-sweet-sounds-of-roundball-rock#ooid=R0ZmYwdTrA1xEv4Gmx7xhDoptb9n-Ltn

Through the second round of the playoffs, DeAndre Jordan leads the NBA in shooting 144 FT's this postseason making only 61 at a tick of 42%. In game 4 against the Rockets he shot an astonishing 34 FT's which were in majority all due to intentional fouls. It is interesting to note the DeAndre is also playing with 3 of the top 5 FT shooters in NBA History: 2) JJ Redick 3) Chris Paul, and 5) Jamal Crawford. This puts into perspective what players have done to be the best versus remain among the worst FT shooters in the league. Again DeAndre has known about FT's his whole life, he knows they are coming, and plays with some of the best shooters of his generation but is still unable to figure out how to be successful there.

Let us remember a Hall of Fame example from the likes of "The Mailman," in Mr. Karl Malone. He entered the league as a rookie and shot a miserable 48.1% from the Free Throw line his Rookie season in the NBA. Three years later, he ended up shooting 76.6% from the line, quickly debunking the notion that people are just bad Free Throw shooters and incremental increases are all you will get out of them. Karl became one of the NBA's greatest Power Forwards and led the league in Free Throws made a historic 7 times throughout his career. If he continued to shoot poorly from the Free Throw line one could argue he doesn't become one of the greatest scorers of all-time and lead the Jazz to consistent Western Conference prominence throughout his career. One look at the man and you can see he that he was dedicated, worked harder than anyone else, and was driven to be the best, not just good.

NBA players are icons and heroes to young aspiring basketball players all over the world. Basketball is a game of fundamentals and should not make any radical rule changes because a few players have the inability to make FT's at their professional level. If anything players are watching the playoffs and thinking "wow, if I knew how to make my FT's those 34 attempts could easily turn into 34 pts." This skill and the work to be a proficient FT shooter is an art that can't lose it's value or development priority for the game. Giving poor FT shooters a pass is the last thing that will add integrity to the game and make them successful long-term.

As you can see below FT importance has more value than ever as it relates to championships as well. Since 2003, no team has won an NBA Championship without shooting at least 70% from the FT line. Even more interesting is the trend since 2007 where the average clip exceeds 75%. The Heat as a team saw an improvement of 7.5% in team FT shooting before they won their next championship again. There are plenty of variables here but you can't deny the importance of Free Throws.

Here are the recent title contenders in 2015:

WEST:
Houston Rockets: 63.9%
vs.
Los Angeles Clippers: 66.1%

Golden State Warriors: 70.5%
vs
Memphis Grizzlies: 84.3%

EAST:
Washington Wizards: 71.9%
vs.
Atlanta Hawks: 79%

Cleveland Cavaliers: 79.8%
vs.
Chicago Bulls: 77%

Based on History, the Rockets are not in the running for a title which leaves me to choose the Warriors who do not have a glaring competitive edge based on recent Championship teams but are represented by two players tough to bet against in Steph Curry and Klay Thompson

The Eastern conference is a much harder prediction because they are all very good FT shooting teams. Wizards were eliminated and coincidentally didn't meet the 75% tick. The Hawks and Cavs are very good Free Throw shooting teams - At this stage it is hard to bet against the King or LBJ and his recent track record of winning his last 5 Eastern Conference Finals.

2015 NBA Title Matchup:
Golden State Warriors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Are you jumping on this title prediction bandwagon?


-Jason

Blackhawks Go Duck Hunting

My exposure to the pastime of the Great White North has been very gradual to say the least. In childhood I probably watched The Mighty Ducks (why Anaheim changed their name/logo is beyond me) a dozen times and tried to replicate a "knuckle puck" anytime I came in contact with anything remotely shaped like a ho-ho. I played street hockey with all the kids my age in my neighborhood for probably half of one summer but the constant stops due to traffic proved to be too much for our fragile attention spans and the ritual quickly dwindled. I remember as a teenager ESPN added a tail of fire behind the puck during highlights which made it easier for me to watch. Beyond that, I grew up just a typical ball-sport loving American kid.

Then I went to college at Utah State University. Nightlife in Logan can often be dry and the club hockey team offered some of the best entertainment around. Now I live in southern Oregon and have become very good friends with a somewhat rational man whose passion for the game has made me actually check the bottom line of Sportscenter for Blackhawks scores. Long story short, I am now a Chicago Blackhawks "fan" and this is a post about how they're going to soon hoist Lord Stanley of Preston's cup as the NHL champions. Hat tip to Ray Dinkins for providing the vast majority of the content and analysis forthcoming. I asked Ray, who has been a hockey coach and currently has a daughter playing collegiate hockey back East, to give me three reasons the Blackhawks will win the Stanley Cup. I then looked up some stats to back up what he has to say. Here we go:

Reason #1: " They are veterans of the pressure. They have won the cup twice in the last five years and have not missed the playoffs for years (2007-2008 was the last time). They are calm and cool under pressure and don't understand the concept of panic."

• Impressive resume, but are there any numbers from THIS postseason that back up Ray's claims? So far this postseason, the 'hawks have won 5 of 6 games when they are outshot by their opponents. This ranks them number one in the league in terms of wins when being outshot. Pretty cool customers considering the barrage of shot attempts being taken against them.

Reason #2: "Offensive depth: It's possible to match a Patrick Kane and/or Jonathan Toews. But nobody can match them plus Patrick Sharp, Marion Hossa, Andrew Shaw, Brandon Saad, etc. I mean, the offensive depth of the Hawks makes every single line a starting line on other teams."

• No team can match their front four in Toews, Kane, Sharp, and Hossa. What has been Chicago's achilles heel in previous years has been when their opponents have stronger forwards in the 5-12 slots. This year is a different case. Chicago has proved this by ranking first in overall goals this postseason, first in 1st period goals, and first in 2nd period goals. 

Reason #3: "The Big 4. The Hawks have the best 4 defensive players in the league and the 4 of them alone can put in a complete game. Duncan Keith, Johnny Oduya, Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarrson...these guys will shut down any powerhouse offense. Add Corey Crawford in net (struggled to end the season but is in veteran cup winning form right now) and opponent's goals will be hard to come by." 

• This may be where one could argue the Hawks may have an achilles heel. Of the four teams left in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, Chicago is the only one outside the top five in terms of goals against per game this postseason at 2.8. However, there is reason for optimism as they only gave up 1.75 GPG in the Minnesota series, including a shutout in game 3 of the series where Corey Crawford was 30/30 on save opportunities. 

It is hard to argue with his reasoning, and the results thus far back up his conclusions. If the Blackhawks want to make it 3 cups in six years, they will have to make it through the Ducks who feature two of the games' best in Perry and Getzlaf. They've been successful thus far as they have dominated Anaheim on both occasions this year. Take this to the bank, whoever wins the Western Conference final is bound to win the cup because the Eastern Conference in Hockey is the equivalent of the Eastern Conference in the NBA. Let's go Hawks!

-Rhett

The greatness that is King Felix

The term "underrated" is often used to define unheralded, under-the-radar type players who rarely get the publicity their fans feel is merited. The word can be found pasted through message boards and bellowed from stands by fans of mid-major universities who feel like the death star coughESPNcough doesn't give their guy/team/conference enough credit. It is sometimes used as a way to give praise to role players who do "the little things" to help their team win. This is not one of those posts, and this situation is entirely different.

Felix Hernandez is not flying under anybody's radar. He has sections of Safeco Field dedicated to him as The King's Court. He has a Cy Young Award under his belt (one less than he deserves, stupid Corey Kluber). He is not a role player, he is the unquestioned ace of the Seattle Mariners and has been for a decade. He has been lusted after by the New York Evil Empire since he signed as a 16 year old. Some have called him the best right handed pitcher alive. Yet despite all of this, I still feel that Felix Hernandez is underrated, under-appreciated, and not heralded enough. Am I biased? Absolutely. Does that affect my argument's credibility? Maybe a little bit, but not a lot because I'm about to throw some stats at you and people seem to be accepting of numbers ever since Brad Pitt and Moneyball made everyone feel like they are a statistician. To the bullets!

• Among qualified starting pitchers from 1900-present with a minimum of 2000 innings pitched, here are Felix's all-time rankings:
• 5th in K-BB% (the percent of batters he strikes out minus the percent of batters he walks) at 16.5% 
• 7th in K% at 23.2%. Yes, he strikes out almost 1/4 of the batters he faces
• 8th in K/9 IP at 8.94

• Not only does Felix strike folks out, and not walk them, when hitters actually make contact, it is very frequently weak. Since batted ball data has been a thing (2002-present). Here are his rankings among qualified pitchers:
• 2nd lowest line-drive percentage 18.1%
• 3rd highest ground-ball percentage 54.4%

• Felix does everything humanly possible to help his team win. At the age of 29, he ALREADY rankes 17th all-time in Win Probability Added. For reference, Nolan Ryan is 21st, Jim Palmer 22nd, and Tom Seaver is 25th.

• He recently became the 4th youngest pitcher to reach 2000 strikeouts, ahead of Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax

• Just last year Felix set a major league record with SIXTEEN consecutive starts of 7+IP allowing 2 or less earned runs. The previous record was 13 by Tom Seaver in 1971 when the league averaged 3.89 runs per game vs. 4.07 runs per game in 2014. 

• Speaking of starts with 7+ IP, Felix  has 113 of them where he allowed ONE earned run or fewer, Koufax had 112.

• He is one of 23 pitchers in the history of the game to throw a perfect game

• His swag and neck tattoo game are both unparalleled 

Did I mention he is only 29 years old? We are in the midst of watching a legend do work, and like a fine wine, he is only getting better with time (currently 6-0 with a shiny 2.71 xFIP). Here's to a greater appreciation for the King. Let's hop on the bandwagon to Felix being the best pitcher to ever live. If he keeps up this pace, he may become just that.



Roar on, fair king, roar on.

-Rhett

Assessing the Utah Jazz Free Agency Situation

It is anticipated the Jazz are going to have a little over $21 million for free agency next season. Assuming they pick up Trevor Booker's option ($4.75 million) that will leave them with a little over $16 million and not many holes to fill.

Initially, I believe the prevailing opinion was that they need to get a wing to pair with Gordon Hayward that can hit 3 pointers and play defense. However, given the late season emergence of Rodney Hood, where he shot 42% from the three after the all-star break, Alec Burks returning from injury, and the solid play of Millsap and Ingles, I'm not sure the Jazz need to add a wing. I also don't want Rodney Hood pushed further down the bench.

Wes Matthews coming off a career year was initially a popular pick for the Jazz to sign, but he tore his achilles toward the end of the year and that injury has been known to ruin careers.

Here's my list of the top free-agents at a wing position that are actually a possibility for the Jazz:

1. Danny Green
2. Khris Middleton (Restricted, a max offer might get him)
3. Wes Matthews
4. Demarre Carroll
5. Monta Ellis (Will likely require a max contract and Dallas deciding to rebuild)
6. Gerald Green
7. Louis Williams
8. Mike Dunleavy

It is an intriguing list if nothing else.

The big question mark with fans right now though is the PG position. Will Exum take the necessary big step forward? Most people are also convinced Trey Burke is not the answer. The problem is, there isn't a great answer in free-agency at the PG either.

Here's my list of top PG free agents available:

1. Brandon Knight (Restricted, Phoenix will likely match any offer)
2. Reggie Jackson (Restricted, Detroit will likely match any offer)
3. Rajon Rondo
4. Patrick Beverly
5. Jeremy Lin
6. Mo Williams
7. Aaron Brooks
8. CJ Watson
9. Beno Udrih
10. Jameer Nelson
11. Norris Cole
12. Cory Joseph

Does anyone off the list excite you as someone to mentor the Jazz youth and lead them through the playoffs? I don't think so. Especially with the locker room cancer Rondo proved to be this past season.

Other viable free-agency candidates could be:

(I'm not a fan of these because I don't want anyone that would demand minutes from Favors or Gobert)
1. Draymond Green
2. Paul Millsap
3. Jeff Green
4. Tobias Harris

We can never rule out a trade either. Especially considering the Jazz have this year's lottery pick and future 1st round picks for the Thunder and Warriors in their back pocket.

So what should they do- Spend all their money one guy? Spread it out for two decent players? Save their money? Personally, I'm on the Danny Green (first) or Khris Middleton (second) bandwagon. Even though the Jazz look solid at wing one of these guys would help a lot. Then the Jazz would just need to hope and pray that Exum shows a lot of improvement and Trey Burke can play within himself to solidify the PG position. I also expect the Jazz to bring in a veteran at PG more for a mentor role than actual playing time. They also need to add a backup big man but I plan on them using something like the mid-level exception to pick one up if needed.

The Jazz already are not far off. They were the 3rd youngest team in the NBA last season at an average age of 23.9 . Everyone is getting a year older and they went 19-10 after the All-Star Break.

It's going to be an exciting off-season for Jazz fans.

- Brendan

What has gotten into J.J. Redick this season/postseason?

J.J. Redick’s first eight seasons in the NBA, he averaged 39% from the three-point line in the regular season and 36% from the three-point line in the playoffs. This year he has erupted and is shooting 44% from the three during the regular season and an astounding 47% from the three during the playoffs. His attempts are at a career-high and he’s averaging a career-high 16.4 points per game.

Redick is playing the best basketball of his career and I believe we are seeing the Clippers play the best basketball we have seen from them this era. I don’t think this is a coincidence. Beating the Spurs in round one was an incredible accomplishment and now they are dismantling the Houston Rockets. Yes, Griffin and Jordan have improved and are older, but J.J. finally shooting like we knew he could coming out of college has given their offense a whole new dimension and is really spacing the floor.

Why now? What has caused J.J. to all of a sudden take his game to new levels? This is what happens when a player knows his role and knows he has full confidence of his teammates and coaches. He first had the trust of Doc Rivers who immediately traded for him when he got the job in L.A. and has earned the trust Chris Paul over time.

The exciting brand of basketball the Clippers play with the dunk show in the post and lights out shooting from the outside from Redick has turned me from a non-believer to jumping on the L.A. Clippers bandwagon.

- Brendan