Tuesday, May 19, 2015

FREE Throws in the NBA and how they factor into NBA Titles



Have you ever found yourself yelling at the TV or a player at the game with something along the lines of this clean version "MAKE YOUR FREE THROWS, THEY ARE CALLED FREE FOR A REASON." I'm sure there are hundreds of word combinations that could be used along the lines of $%^&# &(%*$#  however I will leave you to remember what you have said in the past and let you think about what you will say during the NBA Playoffs because you know plenty of Free Throws are coming your viewership way.

Anyone who is reasonably educated with basketball knows the fundamental rule surrounding a "Free Throw" (FT) and that first and foremost it is = Free, meaning an unhindered or unopposed shot. This is the only play in basketball where a player has the ability to take up to 10 seconds, gather himself, go through his routine or motion and shoot from the same area on the floor that measures 15 ft, 4.57m from the foul line to the hoop each and every single time. When a player is fouled and put in a situation to shoot a Free Throw, the player knows that the physical aspect of the Free Throw has never changed despite variables ranging from fatigue, pressure, and incomprehensible noise etc. which could all be factors associated with the outcomes.

The question is then raised, if you are aspiring to be good at something let alone a professional athlete, in this case playing for the NBA and know you have the ability to master a shot that is Free and remains constant, why would you not do everything within your power to master this skill? The argument can be made that we are seeing better athletes and players than ever before, so in theory this should be an easy solution. The NBA Playoffs has seen record breaking FT attempts this postseason mainly due to the likes of Dwight Howard, Josh Smith and DeAndre Jordan (no relation to MJ).

Their consistent inability to shoot at a respectable percentage is mind boggling, as I described in my intro. The phrase coined "Hack a Shaq" has taken an all new meaning in the 2015 NBA Playoffs making executives, owners, fans, and players question whether rule changes need to be put in place that eliminates that ability to foul any given player and send them to the FT line during a game. This can influence the games tempo, coaching strategies, defensive sets, substitutions, player personnel on the floor given the "Hack a Shaq" mentality oppositions are using.


Check out DJ's 34 attempts set to the sweet sounds of 'Roundball Rock

http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2015/5/10/8583921/hack-a-deandre-jordan-set-to-the-sweet-sounds-of-roundball-rock#ooid=R0ZmYwdTrA1xEv4Gmx7xhDoptb9n-Ltn

Through the second round of the playoffs, DeAndre Jordan leads the NBA in shooting 144 FT's this postseason making only 61 at a tick of 42%. In game 4 against the Rockets he shot an astonishing 34 FT's which were in majority all due to intentional fouls. It is interesting to note the DeAndre is also playing with 3 of the top 5 FT shooters in NBA History: 2) JJ Redick 3) Chris Paul, and 5) Jamal Crawford. This puts into perspective what players have done to be the best versus remain among the worst FT shooters in the league. Again DeAndre has known about FT's his whole life, he knows they are coming, and plays with some of the best shooters of his generation but is still unable to figure out how to be successful there.



Let us remember a Hall of Fame example from the likes of "The Mailman," in Mr. Karl Malone. He entered the league as a rookie and shot a miserable 48.1% from the Free Throw line his Rookie season in the NBA. Three years later, he ended up shooting 76.6% from the line, quickly debunking the notion that people are just bad Free Throw shooters and incremental increases are all you will get out of them. Karl became one of the NBA's greatest Power Forwards and led the league in Free Throws made a historic 7 times throughout his career. If he continued to shoot poorly from the Free Throw line one could argue he doesn't become one of the greatest scorers of all-time and lead the Jazz to consistent Western Conference prominence throughout his career. One look at the man and you can see he that he was dedicated, worked harder than anyone else, and was driven to be the best, not just good.

NBA players are icons and heroes to young aspiring basketball players all over the world. Basketball is a game of fundamentals and should not make any radical rule changes because a few players have the inability to make FT's at their professional level. If anything players are watching the playoffs and thinking "wow, if I knew how to make my FT's those 34 attempts could easily turn into 34 pts." This skill and the work to be a proficient FT shooter is an art that can't lose it's value or development priority for the game. Giving poor FT shooters a pass is the last thing that will add integrity to the game and make them successful long-term.

As you can see below FT importance has more value than ever as it relates to championships as well. Since 2003, no team has won an NBA Championship without shooting at least 70% from the FT line. Even more interesting is the trend since 2007 where the average clip exceeds 75%. The Heat as a team saw an improvement of 7.5% in team FT shooting before they won their next championship again. There are plenty of variables here but you can't deny the importance of Free Throws.


Here are the recent title contenders in 2015:

WEST:
Houston Rockets: 63.9%
vs.
Los Angeles Clippers: 66.1%

Golden State Warriors: 70.5%
vs
Memphis Grizzlies: 84.3%

EAST:
Washington Wizards: 71.9%
vs.
Atlanta Hawks: 79%

Cleveland Cavaliers: 79.8%
vs.
Chicago Bulls: 77%

Based on History, the Rockets are not in the running for a title which leaves me to choose the Warriors who do not have a glaring competitive edge based on recent Championship teams but are represented by two players tough to bet against in Steph Curry and Klay Thompson

The Eastern conference is a much harder prediction because they are all very good FT shooting teams. Wizards were eliminated and coincidentally didn't meet the 75% tick. The Hawks and Cavs are very good Free Throw shooting teams - At this stage it is hard to bet against the King or LBJ and his recent track record of winning his last 5 Eastern Conference Finals.

2015 NBA Title Matchup:
Golden State Warriors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers



Are you jumping on this title prediction bandwagon?


-Jason


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